By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2024-06-13

Russia is losing clout and credibility in the Middle East for a host of reasons, including its close ties with Iran, the criminal actions of its top military officers in Syria and its wandering attention amid its war on Ukraine, analysts say.

"It has become clear that the Middle East is no longer a topmost priority for Russia," Cairo University international relations professor Mohieddin Ghanem told Al-Fassel.

"The Middle East is now in fourth place in the hierarchy of Russian interests, after Ukraine, China and the West," he said.

As Russia turns its attention elsewhere, its policies in the Middle East have been dominated by "a group of old guard generals," including Gen. Aleksander Chaiko, Ghanem said.

Chaiko is accused of committing war crimes in Syria in 2019 and 2020 that include attacks on hospitals, schools and populated areas in Idlib province.

In Syria, Chaiko acted "as if he were an absolute ruler, without regard to the ramifications of his actions on the future of his country's relations with Arab countries in the long term," Ghanem added.

Moscow 'out of the game'

"The presence of war generals in the Russian president's narrow circle has harmed Russian policies in the Middle East," Syrian lawyer Bashir al-Bassam told Al-Fassel.

"Arab countries do not want to get involved with the Russian regime at the expense of relations with Western countries and the United States," he said.

"The Russian intervention in Syria has only brought destruction and more killing," he added, noting that this has further eroded support for Moscow.

No Arab government "wants to deal with war criminals" who have committed crimes in Syria, North Africa and other countries on the African continent, as well as in Ukraine, he added.

Chaiko is also suspected of organizing massacres of civilians in the Ukrainian city of Bucha and other towns around Kyiv during Russia's 2022 invasion, according to eyewitnesses and numerous news reports.

The Middle East is currently facing "major geopolitical and strategic changes," al-Bassam said, "and Moscow knows that it is now out of the game because of its attitudes that are sometimes stubborn and other times chilly."